One of the most pressing problems faced by humanity, first identified in the mid-twentieth century but remaining unresolved to this day, is the rapid deterioration of the environment. The causes include not only intensive industrialisation and urbanisation, but also the costly and sometimes irrational ways in which these processes have been managed. The imminent threat of global environmental pollution and the prospect of resource depletion have prompted scientists and practitioners to search for effective methods of mitigating these dangers. In our view, the sustainable development concept (SDC), which has been hailed as the most promising ideology of the twenty-first century, appropriately addresses the complexity of these challenges.

The first publications on corporate social responsibility and sustainable development appeared in the 1950s. The early concepts of enterprise and regional or national development focused primarily on economic growth, ignoring the impact of enterprise activities on the environment and society. However, as negative environmental changes escalated, there was a growing recognition of the close relationship between economic development, environmental protection and social justice, thus giving rise to a pluralistic development philosophy.

Our preliminary desk-based explorations of these issues led us to a conviction that despite the long period of work on resolving the above-mentioned global problems, most of the provisions of the new approach (which actually arose to address those problems) still remain largely declarative. That is, from the recognition by scientists and practitioners of the large-scale environmental, economic and social problems, there has been no adequate transition to their practical resolution. Furthermore, the rapid advancement of technology has coincided with a disappointingly slow implementation of sustainable development concepts (SDC), exacerbating these issues.

As a result of the above preliminary conclusion, we resolved to conduct a detailed analysis of the evolution of SDC, particularly within corporate contexts, as reflected in the research literature. Such an investigation, we felt, could highlight these ongoing problems and foster a more vigorous search for practical solutions. While there is ample literature that discusses the components of sustainable development and their significance to humanity, there is a notable gap in methodologies for their practical application, especially in terms of corporate development within specific industries.

2. Objective and research methodology

The aim of this article is to demonstrate that, despite the years that have passed since the SDC was first formulated, its relevance has not merely endured but has increased, especially in the context of corporate development. As such, the article seeks to justify the following hypothesis: “Despite the relatively long period that the sustainable development concept (SDC) has existed and despite the significant number of publications devoted to it, SDC statements are still mainly declarative in nature and it has not yet become key criteria for analysing the effectiveness of the practical activities of corporations”.

In seeking to achieve this goal, we employed a suite of desk-based analysis methods, including in particular:

• the historical method – traceing out the sequence of documents that attest to a change in society’s attitude to the need to address global problems related to environmental pollution;
• abstraction – highlighting the important and useful characteristics of the SDC at each stage of its evolution, intentionally omitting other properties deemed insignificant for this study. For example, we have abstracted away from generalizations about the concept and omitted references to specific levels of business development and the legislative framework of specific countries;
• analysis – identifying constituent elements and trends within the phenomena and processes described in the literature;
• generalization – establishing the common properties and signs of various aspects of sustainable development in various areas of its application;
• synthesis – summarizing information and delineating clear outlines of the constituent elements of the SDC and the role of corporations in its implementation;
• comparison – identifying changes indicated in the literature, not only regarding mankind’s habitat, but also the dynamics of interest shown in the global problem on the part of society, the state, and business;
• tabulation – systematizing and visually presenting the collected data on the growing attention to global economic, environmental and social problems, as well as the main characteristics of theories explaining the process of corporate sustainability.

To test our research hypothesis, we selected scientific literature for analysis on the basis of the following principles: purposefulness – orientation towards specific goals; relevance – compliance with practical needs and a high degree of importance both now and in the future; systematicity – taking into account the place, role and interrelationships in the general structure of studies of the problem being addressed; objectivity – an unbiased approach on the part of the analysts; and completeness – the use of all available information pertinent to the tasks at hand.

3. The emergence and evolution of the sustainable development concept

The SDC has achieved notable progress on a global scale since its inception in the 1980s. In 1983, the United Nations established the World Commission on Environment and Development (dD), also known as the Brundtland Commission, tasked with studying the relationship between global environmental issues and economic development. The pivotal 1987 Brundtland Commission Report, entitled Our Common Future (WCED, 1987), put forward the concept for the first time. It defined sustainable development as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. This definition incorporates the economic, social and environmental dimensions into the development framework and provides a guiding principle for sustainable development on a global scale.

Since the release of Our Common Future, sustainable development has gradually been adopted as a common direction of developmental strategy for the international community (United Nations, 1994). Table 1 outlines the chronology of the major documents reflecting the growing attention to global economic, environmental and social issues, reflected in ongoing research and the adoption of relevant documents.

The evolution of the SDC illustrates a shift from singular to diversified development, from short-term interests to long-term sustainability, and from domestic development to global cooperation. These patterns have emerged through a confluence of factors, such as globalisation, environmental problems, social equity awareness and scientific and technological advances. The documents emphasise that, in the course of future development, countries should continue to strengthen cooperation, adhere to the SDC, and work together to address global challenges and achieve common development and prosperity for humanity.

4. Modern key aspects of sustainable development

Today the SDC encompasses a broad range of aspects; the main ones are briefly described below (IUCN, 2013).

Corporate Sustainable Development – the balancing of the economic, social and environmental aspects of a business, taking the needs of future generations into account. It emphasises that businesses should pursue profits while also considering social responsibility and environmental protection;

Sustainable Marketing – the integration of the concept of sustainable development into a company’s marketing strategy. It emphasises the provision of environmentally oriented products and services to gain a competitive advantage by meeting consumer demand for sustainable development;

Sustainable Urban Development – aims to create healthy, liveable, economically prosperous and socially-just cities. This includes improving urban infrastructure, providing efficient public transport systems, increasing green space, promoting the circular economy, etc.;

Sustainable Agriculture – the adoption of environmentally friendly agricultural practices that meet the needs of the present without compromising the needs of future generations;

Sustainable Energy – the use of renewable resources to meet energy needs, such as solar, wind and hydroelectric power;

Sustainable Tourism – the development of tourism without damaging the natural environment and cultural resources, while creating economic benefits for local communities;

Sustainable Education – incorporating the concept of sustainable development into the education system and cultivating students’ environmental awareness and capacity for sustainable development.

These various aspects represent different levels, sectors, and functions of economic activity within the SDC framework. Table 2, which can be modified and tailored based on specific research objectives, presents one way of systematizing these aspects. This categorization is based on the industry of the given entity (e.g. an enterprise or corporation) and covers the most influential sectors (like energy or agriculture) or the most vulnerable sectors (like tourism or education). Although this list can be expanded, we believe the following areas merit additional focus when implementing the concept of sustainable development (Chen et al., 2022).

• energy transformation – with advancements in science and technology, renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydro energy are progressively replacing fossil fuels;
• ecological protection and restoration – focuses on protecting biodiversity and ecosystem services and maintaining the Earth’s ecological security;
• green production and consumption – promotes environmentally friendly production methods, reduces industrial pollution and improves resource efficiency;
• sustainable urban development – optimises the spatial layout of cities, raises the level of urban greening, and improves the urban ecological environment;
• population and social development – aims for a balanced development of population and resources, safeguarding people’s basic living needs;
• international cooperation and policy support – strengthens global environmental governance, promotes international technical exchanges and cooperation, and jointly addresses global challenges.

In practice, effectively implementing sustainable development principles is demonstrated by a business’s ability to achieve its objectives while strictly adhering to the 'do no harm’ principle across all dimensions of its operations.

5. Theories of corporate responsibility in the context of sustainable development

Corporate sustainability has been the subject of extensive research over the past few decades, given that the sustainable development of corporations is essential for the sustainable development of society. It is widely recognized that the most important value of a corporation lies precisely in the economic aspect of its sustainability. Scholars across various disciplines have explored corporate sustainability, particularly focusing on the tension between profit maximization and the often-overlooked environmental and social concerns. Table 3 below provides a comparative look at some of the most prominent ways in which corporate social and environmental responsibility has been theorized to date:

The concept of Corporate Social Responsibility was first formally defined by H. Bowen in 1953. He described CSR as the alignment of business leaders’ actions with the societal values prevalent in environment in which they operate (Bowen, 2013). The Circular Economy Model emphasizes improving the profitability of enterprises by improving resource utilisation efficiency, reducing production costs, and reining in environmental pollution. This model also facilitates sustainable development by fostering technological innovation and industrial structure optimisation, helping enterprises gain more opportunities in market competition and achieve sustainable development (Tuladhar et al., 2022).

Stakeholder Theory, in turn, can be traced back to the 1960s, when the Stanford Research Institute first proposed the concept of “stakeholder”, emphasizing that organizations need the support of not only their shareholders but also their stakeholders in order to exist and thrive (Freeman et al., 2010). The Sustainable Development Reporting Framework not only focuses on the economic, environmental and social aspects of an enterprise’s development, but also emphasises the interrelationship and balance between these three aspects. This enables enterprises to comprehensively consider various factors and achieve synergistic development in all aspects when formulating and implementing sustainable development strategies (Stefanescu, 2022).

Amid rising concerns about global warming and ecological civilization, the Green Economy Theory (GE) has emerged as a prominent economic development model, gaining significant attention across various nations (Zhang, 2022). Conversely, the Triple Bottom Line Theory (TBL) offers a comprehensive approach for companies striving for sustainability across three areas: the economic, social and environmental domains (Weidner et al., 2020).

The more recent Theory of Natural Capitalism argues that corporations should shoulder societal and environmental responsibilities, which includes fair employee treatment, environmental protection, and community contributions (Missemer, 2018). Meanwhile, the theory of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Standards assists corporations in identifying key stakeholders and integrating their contributions and demands into operational strategies. This framework not only aids in managing risks but also in creating competitive advantages by addressing ESG issues crucial for maintaining a social license to operate (Zhao-Xiang, 2021). Lastly, the Shared Value Creation Framework Theory suggests that the success of a business depends not only on its own performance, but also on its ability to meet and exceed the expectations of its stakeholders. Therefore, corporations need to work closely with various stakeholders to create value together (Arena et al., 2022).

In summary, while these theories do present varied approaches, several commonalities are nevertheless evident. First, they all emphasise the need for corporations to take social and environmental impacts into account while pursuing economic interests. Second, they all advocate for business decisions to be based on consideration of the interests of all stakeholders. Third, they provide a systematic approach to help businesses understand and manage their own sustainability performance. Finally, they all emphasise the critical role of environmental responsibility and social contribution of business in economic development.

6. Examples of sustainable development and responsible business implementation in the practical activities of corporations

Important initiatives that have contributed to the spread of sustainable development ideas based on responsible business include the Recommendations of the Task Force on Nature-Related Financial Disclosure. Over 320 companies and financial institutions globally have begun incorporating nature-related risks and opportunities into their corporate reporting. This initiative aligns with global biodiversity frameworks and aims to halt and reverse nature loss, emphasizing the integration of nature and biodiversity impact reporting into standard business practices (TNFD, 2024).

One of the vivid examples of the SDC practical implementation is ExxonMobil, which implemented several sustainability practices as outlined in their recent reports, such as the 2023 Sustainability Report (ExxonMobil, 2023a) and the Advancing Climate Solutions Progress Report ((ExxonMobil, 2023b). ExxonMobil aims to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions for its operated assets by 2050, focusing on reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions. The company is investing in developing and deploying new technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen production, and advanced recycling of plastic waste. ExxonMobil is also working on water management strategies to reduce freshwater intake and manage disposal effectively. From 2022 to 2027, ExxonMobil plans to invest approximately $17 billion in lower-emission initiatives, reflecting a nearly 15% increase from their previous commitments.

A third example can be found in the building company Wienerberger, which represented with more than 200 production sites in Europe, North America, and India, and operates in international markets through exports. The company’s Sustainability Program (Wienerberger, 2023) promotes circularity by using secondary raw materials, converting to green electricity, and advancing decarbonization through innovative product designs like climate-neutral bricks and integrated solar panels. Their long-term goal is to be climate-neutral by 2050.

In addition to such positive examples, it is also necessary to point out that certain companies on the market practice “greenwashing” – a marketing technique that helps to position a product or brand as more natural and ecological than it really is, thereby seeking to boost profits. A classic example of greenwashing is when Volkswagen admitted to cheating on emissions tests by fitting its vehicles with a “defective” device, able to detect when it was meant to be undergoing an emissions test and then providing false readings – at the same time as the company’s marketing campaigns were praising the eco-friendly features of its vehicles to the public. In fact, as it later became clear, these allegedly low-emissions engines “were emitting up to 40 times the allowed limit for nitrogen oxide pollutants” (Robinson, 2022). Another example of cynical behaviour involves putting a green label on something to make it appear greener or healthier, as Coca-Cola did with Coca-Cola Life – a 6.6% sugar drink that is far from healthy (Akepa, 2024). Given the ongoing prevalence of greenwashing, an essential task for researchers is to expose such deceptive practices and inform the public accordingly.

While the examples provided illustrate the significant strides that have been made towards sustainable development, they are not universally representative of all businesses. However, in our view, the persistence of negative trends that emerged in the mid-twentieth century underscores the need for these practices to become more broadly mandated. We believe that the theoretical foundation for addressing this global issue through legislative, economic, financial, and marketing regulations is already well-established. The next step, therefore, should involve developing methodological recommendations and standards, tailored to different regions, industries, levels, etc., to further drive the implementation of sustainable development practices.

7. Summary

Since its initial definition, the concept of “sustainable development” has significantly evolved and is now rightly considered one of the most innovative, urgent and practical theories in environmental and business contexts. The relevance of the concept is quite high and continues to grow, especially since the degrading of the environment not only persists but, in many areas, has even intensified. Our review of the scientific literature indicated a steadily increasing interest in the topic, as evidenced by the rising number and quality of the respective publications. Moreover, the findings of this review have supported the hypothesis that SDC principles still largely need to transition from being largely declarative to more practical applications.

In general, corporate sustainable development has emerged as an important issue in the development of modern business, against the backdrop of worsening global environmental conditions and increasingly acute social problems. Many theories have emerged, the main idea of which can be formulated as follows: enterprises need not only to focus on their profits and continuous growth, but also to take environmental responsibility and actively promote sustainable development practices. A company’s economic sustainability should take into account behaviours that can lead to economic improvements, not just financial results, and the best way to achieve economic growth or enhance long-term competitiveness is to create value. At the same time, corporations need to develop their social sustainability by taking on broader responsibility for various stakeholder groups and their social and environmental impacts to better meet stakeholders’ needs.

Additionally, to enhance social sustainability, corporate behaviour should not be limited to legal frameworks. Rather, corporations are called to enhance their social sustainability by assuming greater responsibility towards various stakeholders, thus addressing broader social and environmental impacts more effectively. This involves going beyond legal compliance to genuinely fostering positive relationships with customers and employees. Environmental sustainability should also be a priority, with practices aimed at reducing pollution, lowering production costs, adhering to regulations, and securing financing and insurance to support these initiatives.

Practical examples of responsible business principles being implemented by corporations in the context of sustainable development also validate the effectiveness of these theoretical approaches. However, the current non-resolution of global problems, which have only worsened of late, indicates a need to move from the theoretical substantiation of the ideas of the concept to the next stage – the development of a methodology for their implementation. Thus, there is a compelling need for applied research that gathers primary data to assess how factors such as industry, regional dynamics, scale of operations, and corporate governance influence the implementation of sustainable practices.

In the next phase of our research, we plan to analyse the extent to which these factors impact the adoption of sustainable development principles. This step aims to address current limitations noted in the work reported herein, which has primarily relied on the analysis of secondary sources and utilized methods that may be inadequate for future challenges. This forthcoming study will aim to enhance our understanding of the practical applications of sustainable development and contribute to more effective strategies in corporate sustainability.

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Humanity has reached the third millennium AD, having achieved significant success in studying both the infinite microworld and the vast expanses of outer space. All spheres of human activity are developing rapidly, stimulating the acceleration of changes in market relations. This has prompted various new ways of defining the economy, for instance, as a post-industrial economy (Liebiedieva, 2010) or post-industrial globalism (Tolstoukhov, 2003), as an informational economy (Danylovych- -Kropyvnits’ka, 2016), innovative economy (Antokhov, 2019), knowledge economy (Krapivny, 2015), or global converged-network financial economy (Bilorus, Vlasov, Hrycenko, & Yefymenko, 2019) and so on. The studies that argue in favor of each of the above definitions are mostly optimistic, and this optimism is quite understandable, because it is based on an understanding of the progressive vector of human development, raising the standards of quality of life.

When the expression „quality of life” is used, however, it primarily refers to the material world, which today is full of technological, complex, „smart” devices designed to free people from primitive, routine work and enable them to develop harmoniously. However, even a cursory glance at modern society suggests that, albiet with certain exceptions, it is difficult to call an average representative of that society a „harmoniously developed personality” with a high level of personal values (PV). It is easy to demonstrate this by analyzing such social phenomena as the level of aggression in relations of any scale (from interpersonal to interethnic), the dynamics of crime, wars, environmental degradation due to an unethical attitude to the environment, and many others. However, consideration of these problems is not the subject of our study, and they are mentioned here only to illustrate the contrast between humanity’s technical and technological advancement, on the one hand, and its humanitarian development on the other.

In other words, regardless of what definition of the economy is adopted today and how innovative the introduced technologies are, the attention paid to fostering PV is invariably small, not only in Ukraine but also in many other countries. In our view, the fact that the level of humanitarian development of society lags behind the current high level of technological development is a source of extremely difficult challenges and problems that have already faced us and continue to grow and become more complicated. These problems are global, and their severity is due to several factors, among which the following occupy an important place: the level of socio-economic development; features of traditions, religion, and the political and legal fields; the values promoted by the social elite of a given country (primarily through examples set by the lives of the elite, their real practical activities and not just declarations); the education system and level of education, etc.

As the authors of the present article represent the education sector, we are naturally most concerned about the impact of the educational component on PV. There have been opportunities for detailed consideration of this aspect, both during public discussion in the development of educational standards, and further studies of the dynamics of such development — especially, for instance, in terms of the harmonization of Ukrainian standards with those of the EU. The studies published as a result of such research have described in detail the quantitative and qualitative changes that have taken place in the educational standards of Ukraine under the influence of this harmonization (Shulhina, 2018). One of the most important changes is the development of new standards of higher education, which have replaced the Industry Standards of Higher Education. The new standards are based on a competency-based approach and share the philosophy of defining the requirements for specialists, which is the basis of the international project of the European Commission „Tuning Educational Structures in Europe” (TUNING, 2003). However, we believe that neither the sector nor the New Standards have paid sufficient attention to the development of PV.

Given the complexity and multifaceted nature of the deficit of values in society and the causes of this phenomenon, it is not our aim to simplify the situation and exaggerate the existing opportunities and prospects for its improvement. At the same time, we are convinced that the urgency of the problem of humanity and humanism in Ukraine and the world is so high, and the risks of using modern technologies by people with inappropriate values are so significant, that it is necessary to intensify the search for solutions to the problem. In view of the above, we begin with an analysis of existing educational standards in terms of their focus on the formation of PV, as well as determining how students assess the degree of focus of existing standards on the development of their PV.

Literature review

Our analysis of the literature was carried out in line with the following chain of assumptions:

1 — Galloping rates of technological development (production, management, information, etc.), contrasted against the lagging development of personal values, gives rise to significant risks (for example, at the global level — humanitarian, man-made and environmental disasters, undemocratic changes, totalitarianism, loss of freedoms, etc.) (ECHO, 2014–2018).

2 — The level of these risks can be mitigated by strengthening the humanitarian component in the education of individualss, primarily through the formation of their values, which is a necessary step towards the creation of a civil society, which in turn is a condition for sustainable economic development.

3 — Despite the fact that the complex of PV is formed mostly at an early age under the influence of a complex set of socio-psychological and other factors (Haugland, 2018), the role of the educational component is significant.

4 — Preparing schoolchildren and university students for a life in fierce global competition, educators have developed educational standards, curricula, and study programs that focus on the acquisition of professional competencies, qualifications and competitiveness in the labor market, while attention to other aspects of harmonious personality development has remained minimized or absent (Ukrainian Ministry of Education and Science, 2021).

5 — For the reasons mentioned in 1, this approach is an anachronistic, and the education system needs to be improved by introducing a systems approach to the development of base educational standards, which would include primarily the education of individuals on strong life values, good physical and mental health, and not just the production of highly qualified specialists. In other words, the individual should be educated in the context of their readiness for the modern challenges of forming a civil society, which is impossible without citizens that take a high degree of responsibility both for themselves (their own moral and physical health) and for the environment (social, political, legal, economic, technical and technological, and environmental).

These assumptions in their general form seem so obvious that they do not require additional justification. However, in the process of formulating them , a scientific approach was followed and was based on the results of an analysis of current educational standards, a large number of literature sources (Toftul, 2014; Beck, 2001; Filisofs’ky, 2002; Golovatyi, 2011; RouzAkkerman, 2003), as well as largely on personal observations.

However, the information so gathered did not offer answers to the question that interested us most — how to change the education system to improve the complex of PV and thus take another step towards the humanization of society. The search for an answer to this question motivated the objectives and methodology of the present study.

The aim of this study is to examine university students’ perceptions of the degree to which existing educational standards are oriented towards the formation and development of personal values, as well as to formulate proposals for the implementation of a systems approach to the development of educational standards as a factor in improving the existing complex of personal values.

Research methodology

The study proceeded in several stages:

• an analysis of the definitions of „personal values” presented in the literature and approaches to their classification — for this purpose we used the methods of desk research, comparison, deduction and induction;
• the selection of a sample of respondents based on a set of approaches: targeted, quota-based and clustered; the sample included 1,518 respondents (716 men and 802 women) from 5 universities in Kyiv (selected with quotas of about 20% of respondents from each university); the age of the respondents — 19–22 years — ensured the presence of about 25% of each age; the respondents were students of 11 different specialties (5 technical and 6 humanities), including 72–76 representatives from each specialty;
• developing standardized questionnaire seeking to identify students’ perceptions of the degree to which existing educational standards are oriented towards on the formation and development of PV, including 16 blocks — this number allowed a sufficient array of answers to be obtained that were needed to analyze the moral and ethical, social, legal and personality-oriented PV groups (15 blocks), and the identification block started the questionnaire; the questionnaire only included closed questions, which facilitated the coding and systematization of answers at the analysis stage; place of survey — libraries of the selected universities; survey period — October 2019–March 2021;
• processing of the obtained data, identification of the V complexes in the respondents, as well as formulation of conclusions, using the following methods: variance, discriminant and factor analyses, conjugation detection, and structural-functional analysis; all these methods were used automatically using the SPSS software (11th version);
• the identified discrepancies between the declared characteristics in the normative documents and the actual ones of the respondents’ personal values were used to develop proposals for the introduction of a systems approach to the development of educational standards; morphological analysis was used for this purpose.
• Given the limitations imposed by the article format, we omit further details of the procedure of the study and proceed instead directly to the explanation of the logic of the survey and description of the results.

Presentation of the material

The research of the PV complex of respondents was conducted on the basis of the classification proposed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Education and Science (2019a). According to this source, the whole set of personal values can be classified into three groups, namely: moral and ethical (dignity, equality, justice, tolerance and cultural diversity, care, honesty and trust); socio-legal (rule of law, intolerance to corruption and favoritism, patriotism, environmental and ethical values, social responsibility) and personality-oriented (self-realization, leadership and freedom).

It should be noted that a variety of approaches to the content and structure of the PV complex can be found in the existingliterature. For example, Schwartz and Boehnke (2004) consider the following list of values: independence, security, discipline and order, freedom of action, enthusiasm, empathy, sensitivity, commitment to progress, creativity, innovation, responsibility, entrepreneurship, wealth, comfort and prestige. However, the classification set out by the Ukrainian Ministry of Education and Science (2019a) was selected because the values listed in this source are fundamental ones, based on which the perception, understanding and, consequently, the presence of the whole range of derivative personal values can be based.

The tasks were meant to identify the respondents’ understanding of the essence of the listed ethical categories and describe their perceptions of the presence in the existing educational standards of elements aimed at the development of the given PV in the system of student values.

These tasks determined the structure of the questionnaire. The identification block was needed to determine the possible impact of such factors on respondents’ responses such as age, gender, specialty, place of study, region of origin, social origin, characteristics of the reference group, types of additional education, hobbies, obstacles / achievements, ideal to follow, life goals and teachers. Each of the next 15 blocks contained a set of questions, the first of which was a question in the form of a closed test with a Likert scale, the answers to which allowed to establish the degree of agreement or disagreement of the respondent with the proposed definition.

The answers to the successive questions in the blocks, formulated in the form of semantic differentials, became a source of information for the main task, as well as the definition of conjugation and the density of the relationships identified. In addition to each block, questions in the form of projection tests were included, on the basis of the answers to which it was determined which factors in the opinion of the students themselves had the greatest influence on the formation of their PV. In addition, responding to the projection tests, students gave information about the structure of the student environment according to the criteria of the degree of PV presence.

The interpretations of the categories which were the basis of the study, and which were chosen from a wide range of options, taking into account their relevance, completeness and accuracy of formulation, are as follows (drawn from: Beck, 2001; Filisofs’kyi entsyklopedychnyi slovnyk, 2002; Rouz-Ackerman, 2003; Toftul, 2014; Universal’nyi slovnyk, 2006):

Dignity is a concept of moral consciousness, which expresses the idea of the value of any person as a moral person, as well as the category of ethics, which means the particular moral attitude of the individual to themselves and society’s attitude to them, which determines the personal value.

Equality, in turn, was viewed from two standpoints — as social equality and equality before the law.

Social equality is a social system in which all members of society have the same status in a particular area. Both the political and economic aspects of social equality are considered in the literature. The political aspect of social equality concerns the rules of public administration: the right to participate in elections, the rules for determining leaders, the rights and responsibilities of leaders, equality before the law. The economic aspect, in turn, concerns the process of distribution of benefits: the right to work, the distribution of resources, equality of opportunities.

Equality before the law is one of the fundamental constitutional requirements, an important condition for the existence of the rule of law, the basic principle not only of the exercise of individual rights and freedoms, but also the functioning of statehood itself. The real equality of the person before the law and the court is seen as a sign of a law-based state, which ensures the rule of law in all spheres of state and public life. Justice is morality and virtue, vulnerability to both public good and evil.

Justice is a socio-ethical and moral-legal category, one of the basic principles of law. The concept of justice means the presence of rights and principles in the social world and expresses their correctness, imperativeness and necessity.

Tolerance is respect for the right of another person to be what he or she is. A tolerant person is someone who respects the interests, habits and beliefs of other people, seeks to understand them and reach mutual agreement without violence and pressure. Tolerance for other people’s way of life, behavior, customs, feelings, ideas and beliefs is a pre-condition for the stability and unity of societies, especially those that are not homogeneous in religious, ethnic or other social dimensions.

Care is a set of actions in relation to an object aimed at its well-being; attention to someone’s needs; caring for someone and something.

Honesty is one of the main facets of human virtues, a moral quality that reflects one of the most important requirements of morality. It includes truthfulness, principledness, fidelity to commitments, subjective belief in the rightness of the case, sincerity to others and to oneself in relation to the motives by which a person is guided, recognition and observance of other people’s rights to what legally belongs to them.

Trust means confidence in the decency and friendliness of the other party with whom the person who trusts is in a relationship. This confidence is based on the experience of a person who trusts the other person.

The rule of law is a fundamental legal principle and doctrine that states that no one is above the law and no one can be punished by the state except for breaking the law, and that no one can be convicted of breaking the law otherwise than in the manner prescribed by law.

Interpretation of the „intolerance to corruption and favoritism” category is divided into components. Intolerance is an antonym of the term „tolerance”, i.e., an unwillingness/inability to be tolerant to someone / something or an intolerant attitude.

Corruption is a negative social phenomenon that manifests itself in the criminal use by officials, public and political figures of their rights and job opportunities for the purpose of personal enrichment.

Patriotism is a civic feeling, the content of which is love for the homeland and willingness to sacrifice one’s own interests for its sake, devotion to the people, pride in the national culture, a special emotional experience of belonging to a country and its citizenship, language, history, traditions, and a willingness to act in the interests of the homeland and stand up for it if necessary.

Ecological and ethical values pertain to the moral and spiritual aspects of the human attitude to the living world and inanimate nature, proper human relations with nature based on the recognition of the moral status of nature, high appreciation of its inner and intangible values, respect for natural rights.

Social responsibility is a general sociological category that expresses a person’s conscious attitude to the requirements of social necessity, responsibilities, social tasks, norms and values. Responsibility means awareness of the essence and importance of human activity, its consequences for society and social development, the actions of a member of society in terms of the interests of society or its specific group.

Self-realization is the realization of an individual’s potential when they are aware of themselves.

The category of leadership is currently deeply studied and characterized ambiguously. There are several approaches to its interpretation:

• leadership as a kind of power, the specificity of which is the direction from top to bottom, as well as the fact that its bearer is not the majority, but one person or group of people who motivate other members of society to actions;
• leadership as a managerial status, senior and social position associated with decision-making by directing and organizing the collective behavior of some or all members of society;
• leadership as the ability to influence other people.

Freedom is the ability to make choices according to one’s desires, interests, and goals based on knowledge of objective reality. Legally, freedom is a person’s ability to behave in accordance with their will, that is, to do whatever is desired, but not something that harms the freedom and rights of others.

The use of a combination of targeted, quota-based and clustered sampling methods enabled the proportional participation of respondents of different ages, genders, specialties, etc., to be ensured, as provided for in the research program,. To obtain information about the significance of the influence of these factors on the respondents’ perception of the value orientation of educational standards, a one-factor analysis of variance was used. Firstly, it should be noted that the assessments were carried out on a 5-point scale, from 1 — minimum attendance to 5 — maximum attendance. However, Tables 1–3 comprise grades in a range from 1 to 3 points, as there were no grades outside the specified limits. In this analysis, a score of 1 was considered very low, 2 — low, 3 — average. The average values of variables and maxima by factor layers made it possible to identify three groups of variables according to the degree of influence on the respondents’ assessments and to make preliminary assumptions. From the large number of variables that were taken for analysis, one variable from each of the three groups in Table 1 were included.

Given that the respondents’ perception of the personal values within one group was almost the same, the fragments selected for illustration represented average statistics for the whole group of moral and ethical (Table 1), social and legal (Table 2) and personality-oriented (Table 3) characteristics.

According to the data in Table 1, more than 77% of respondents believe that the focus of educational standards on the formation in students of the group of moral and ethical personal values is extremely insufficient, and only 1.2% of respondents gave this indicator an average rating. Table 1 presents data on three variables, the first of which — „Specialization” — demonstrates the practical absence of its impact on the assessments of respondents. At the same time, the second variable „Social Origin” had a slight influence on the respondents’ assessments, and the third factor was the most influential — the presence of an ideal for the respondents to emulate. We can assume that the very fact of the existence of such an ideal in the life of a young person, which is the embodiment of high PV, is to some extent evidence of the presence of this PV in the respondent.

Estimates of the group of social and legal PV differed a little from the previous ones — the vast majority pointed to the low level of focus of educational standards on their formation (Table 2).

The „Gender” variable is among the variables that had no significant effect on the presence of V. This group also includes such variables as: age, university, specialty, etc. The „Region of Origin” variable indicates the area in which the respondent lived before entering university. This variable indicated the origin of the respondent from one of the 16 regions whose representatives were included in the sample and was included in the list because the regions of Ukraine have certain differences in attitudes towards the values of civil society, such as justice, dignity, intolerance to corruption, etc., which could affect the assessments of respondents.

Taking into account the three variables presented in Table 2, only information channels had a significant impact on the respondents’ perception of the categories, and hence on their assessments. The explanation provided to the respondents in the questionnaire to the „Information Channels” variable indicated the need to select the most important sources of information for the respondent in various spheres of life from the provided lists. It is quite logical that this variable showed a significant connection with the choice of assessments by respondents.

The frequency distribution of assessments in relation to the group of personality-oriented PV is somewhat different (Table 3). Compared to the previous two groups, many more respondents (from 21.7% to 27.6%) believed that the focus of educational standards on the formation of personality-oriented PV is unexceptional.

In addition, the share of those who gave the analyzed indicator the lowest scores almost halved compared to the data in Table 1 (77%) to 36.2–41.6%. In our opinion, the better perception of this group of characteristics is explained by the positive expectations of students studying at university precisely to increase the level of freedom, leadership, and self-realization. They perceive very often their academic success as a guarantee of achieving these goals, which has a positive impact on the assessment of educational standards. However, scores from 1 to 3 on a 5–point scale show the necessity to improve on the situation.

The correlation matrix between some of the variables involved in the analysis, which according to the respondents’ assessments could influence the formation of their V, indicates the existence of connections of different strength. Thus, there is an observable relationship between the variables „Additional Education”, „Achievements” and „Ideal to Emuulate”. The presence of an ideal almost always motivated respondents to obtain additional knowledge, and this in turn contributed to new achievements (Table 4).

The average correlation was observed between the variables „Social Origin”, „Reference Group” and „Specialty”, which indicates a slight influence of the respondents’ social environment on their choice of communication groups and future profession. A small correlation was found between such variables as „Hobbies”, „Teachers” and „Life Goals”. It follows that the influence of teachers on students’ choice of hobbies, and hence their life goals is extremely small. Given that an individual’s hobbies and life goals are some form of indicator of their PV, the following assumption about the same insignificant influence of teachers on the formation of PV.

Another aspect of the study concerned the identification of the respondents’ assessment of the degree of presence of carriers of the studied V in the student environment (table 5).

This part of the analysis was considered appropriate in the context of identifying the current situation and identifying opportunities to increase the impact of higher education in the following chain: educational standards, including higher education → development of PV, including level of responsibility → harmoniously developed personality → formation of civil society. It is in this context that projective tests were conducted on the students’ perception of their classmates as carriers of high PV, the level of their readiness to defend these PV in today’s imperfect society.

The presence of all three groups of PV (according to the respondents) was measured on a 10-point scale and was considered as high if it was from 7 to 10 points, medium — 4–6 points, low — below 4 points. The conjugation between the level of V presence and influential variables was determined by Pearson’s formula. All cases when the specified formula showed the most significant chi-square value (p < 0.001), were assigned to groups 1, 4 and 7; cases with a relatively significant chi-square value (p < 0,01) — to groups 2, 5 and 8; and in cases p = or > 0.01 to groups 3, 6 and 9.

According to the most pronounced characteristics and the level of activity/civic position (from the point of view of the respondents), the outlined segments were given conditional names.

From the point of view of respondents, „Convinced Public Activists” (1) are idealists, with a high level of self-motivation for the development of their own PV and at the same time active advocates of the spread of progressive ideas in society. Representatives of segments 2 and 3 differ from them only in the degree of activity in defending their own values in different life situations.

Quite a large segment is formed by the „Compromise Seekers” (5), whose behavior is determined by the predominance in the system of their values of exclusively personality-oriented V, interpreted in a somewhat distorted fashion (for example, freedom for me and freedom for others are understood differently), which in the absence of other PV groups does not contribute to sustainable moral priorities.

The main feature of „Simulators of Public Activists” (4) is the desire to build their own career using popular slogans and the trust of those who sincerely believe in them. However, the largest was the share of „Conformists” (7), who, given the lack of stable moral convictions, adapt very well to any conditions due to their passive acceptance of the existing order of things.

The level of rejection of high V in other segments increases from 6 to 8 and then to 9. Their position within the matrix (Table 5) shows that the „Indifferent” (6) have a mediocre perception of PV, and at the same time they underestimate the importance of civil society as an environment and conditions for their implementation. The term „Alienated” for segment (8) was chosen to emphasize their rejection of both PV and civil society, albeit without the aggression shown by segment 9.

It will be recalled that the these are the results of only a single, quantitative study, which therefore need further confirmation and complementation through qualitative research. However, even the data obtained give grounds to draw some conclusions:

• only 7.1% of respondents (the sum of the shares of quadrants 1 and 2) are characterized by a high level of presence of PV and show an active civil position on their advocacy;
• 27.7% of respondents (quadrants 3 and 5) can be considered as a group that is positive about progressive change, but without obvious civic activity;
• 49.6% of respondents (quadrants 4 and 7) are carriers of unstable V with a tendency to their change in any direction depending on the circumstances;
• 14.6% of respondents (quadrants 6, 8 and 9) are the most difficult group in terms of PV development.

In our opinion, these data indicate a low level of PV among university students, i.e., the part of society that is considered the most active and progressive. We are convinced that this conclusion should be considered as a sufficient argument to intensify the development of appropriate measures, and especially in the field of improving educational standards based on a systems approach.

The systems approach will provide the consideration of education as a system of interconnected and therefore interdependent elements (Fig. 1).

Firstly, education depends significantly on the complex environment in which it operates. On the one hand, it is a derivative of all the factors of this environment, and on the other — it is their determinant. Therefore, ignoring any of these factors is inevitably reflected in the result — that is, at the level of education of the population, the system of PV of its members, and hence the competitiveness of the country. Examples include the decline in the quality of education through underfunding and the deterioration of the psychological atmosphere at universities in Ukraine due to their untimely gaining of autonomy. We consider the granting of autonomy to universities in Ukraine to have been untimely due to the low level of social and legal responsibility, which in practice often leads to administrative arbitrariness, difficult working conditions for teachers etc., and in general to conditions unacceptable for the development of PV. Hence, the first steps to implementing a systems approach should be as follows: 1) the creation of a subsystem of information support solutions, which will allow for the development of 2) a thorough and impartial analysis of the causal links of education with its environment and 3) a strategy for the development of education that is most appropriate to real conditions.

Secondly, education involves the transition of participants in the educational process from a lower level of education to a higher one, and this transition should be as effective as possible. We believe that the effectiveness of education (in general) and the formation of PV (in particular) will be significantly higher if two conditions are met: 1) ideological unity of all educational levels, and 2) sufficient participation and development of each element involved in the educational process.

1) The ideological unity of educational standards at all levels is a necessary condition for the formation of stable PV in individuals. According to the National Qualifications Framework (Ukrainian Ministry of Education and Science, 2019b), 11 levels of education are represented in Ukraine (from preschool to the academic level of higher education). The main ideology of education, regardless of its level, should be the education of harmoniously developed individuals with high PV. However, our analysis of higher education standards has shown that they focus exclusively on instilling professional competencies in students, whereas attention to the development of a mentally and physically healthy personality is minimal. Curricula are built according to standards, and therefore do not take into account the needs of young people. The result, although in a very simplified form, is presented in Tables 4 and 5.

2) In the system of higher education, we distinguish the following elements: the core of the system — teachers and students, as well as all possible subsystems — financial, infrastructural, technical, etc. It is clear that all subsystems are important, but teachers/lecturers are crucial for the development of students — not only their qualifications, but also their PV. From Table 4, it follows that a small proportion of teachers are considered by students to be an ideal to emulate, and this is the basis for revising both the current criteria for the selection of lecturers and the requirements for the conditions for their development.

The following sequence of such measures could change the situation for the better:

to develop and implement a set of progressive and time-tested models of education funding to attract the best applicants for the position of teachers (this is especially relevant in terms of the reduction in public funding for education);

to adapt the structure of teachers’ pedagogical load to the requirements of educational standards developed on the basis of the competence approach; that is, to take into account the time required for the teacher to continuously update their theoretical knowledge and gain the necessary practical experience, as well as for physical and spiritual selfdevelopment, which also involves the development of their PV;

to include in the list of criteria of conformity of the candidate for the position of teacher a complex of required PV (which is simple at the current level of development of pedagogical psychology and the corresponding tests) in addition to being qualified in a particular field; to carry out a mandatory examination of the applicant for their psychological and moral fitness to set a positive example for students when hiring, as well as during ongoing certifications;

to give more importance to feedback and the evaluation of teachers by students; however, this requirement only makes sense if there is a welldeveloped methodology for interviewing and data analysis, which will ensure an objective assessment of the teacher’s work;

to translate the principle of „student-oriented” education from the declarative to the practical plane; to do this, it is necessary to significantly simplify the bureaucratic structure of universities, aimed today at maintaining authoritarianism in higher education, and to leave only those administrative units that provide qualitative organization of educational and research processes.

Clearly, the proposed proposals are not comprehensive; however, we consider them a priority in solving the problem of raising the level of PV among all participants in the educational process — as a first step towards the greater humanization of society, thus reducing the gap between technical and humanitarian development that in turn should reduce the level of risk in our lives.

Conclusions

An important determinant of the complexity of modern global problems is the growing gap between the levels of technological advancement and humanitarian development of society. This gap, and therefore all the risks associated with it, can be reduced if education, including higher, focuses on fostering harmoniously developed individuals with strong values. However, even the recently developed standards of higher education for the new generation in Ukraine, which are based on a competency-based approach, are aimed primarily at educating a highly qualified specialist without taking their values into account.

Our study of student perception of different specialties of the degree of orientation of existing educational standards on the formation and development of their values in groups of moral, ethical and socio-legal values has shown that, on a 5-point scale, the indicator received scores ranging from 1 point (more than 77% of respondents) up to 3 points (about 1.2% of respondents). In the group of personality-oriented values, these indicators were slightly better: 41.6% and 27.6%, respectively. The correlation matrix of group variables showed a weak correlation between the variables such as „Hobbies”, „Teachers” and „Life Goals”, which showed the slight influence of teachers on student choices of hobbies, life goals, and hence values.

Segmentation of respondents by the criteria of „presence of groups of values” — „conjugation of groups of values with variables” revealed only 7.1% of respondents with a high level of values and active citizenship; 27.7% are positive about progressive changes, but without obvious civic activity; 49.6% — with unstable values; and 14.6% have a low level.

We propose a systems approach, whereby education is considered as a system of interconnected and interdependent elements. Education significantly depends on the environment of its functioning, so the implementation of a systems approach should begin with the following measures: the creation of the subsystem of informational support of solutions, which will conduct a thorough and unbiased analysis of causal links between education and its environment, and developing a strategy for the development of education that is the most appropriate for the real conditions.

In addition, it is necessary to ensure the ideological unity of all educational levels with the common, overarching goal — the education of harmoniously developed individuals with strong values, which can be reached by sufficient participation and development of each element involved in the educational process. Achieving these goals will be possible as a result of the development and implementation of a set of models for financing of education — to attract the best candidates for teaching positions; adaptation of the structure of teachers’ pedagogical workload to the requirements of educational standards, taking into account the development of their values; introduction of teacher values to the list of criteria of conformity of the candidate for the position of teacher, in addition to qualification in a particular field; testing applicants for psychological and moral suitability to be a positive example for students when hiring, as well as during ongoing certifications; giving more weight to the assessment of teachers by students, given the objectivity of such assessment; translating the principle of „student-oriented” education into practice by simplifying the bureaucratic structure of universities and ensuring high-quality organization of educational and research processes.

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An enterprise that is operating in a competitive environment always faces the problem of performance forecasting. At the same time, each change in market conditions that complicates the circumstances in which market players operate further exacerbates this problem, requiring continual updates to forecasting methods.

A number of previous studies have proposed indicators for forecasting future sales (Balashova & Ivchenko, 2011; Dedu & Saforo, 2016; Kirkova, 2014). In a previous study co-written by the present author (Shulgina & Onishchuk, 2016), we focused on the dynamics of the diffusion of innovative tourism products in 2014–2016, prior to the pandemic brought by COVID-19. The toll this pandemic has had on the economies of the world, and especially on such vulnerable industries as tourism, prompted us to continue this research to cover the period of 2019–2020. Due to the pandemic, the flows of outbound and inbound tourism around the world have sharply decreased, which has forced travel agencies to intensify domestic tourism, in particular through the development of innovative tourist products (Global Business Travel, 2020).

Objective and research methodology

The aim of this article is to present an original methodology developed by the author to forecast the future sales of innovative tourist products, based on the concept of product life cycle and the theory of consumer behavior.

To develop this methodology, a set of methods drawn from both general theoretical and specific marketing research were employed. Methods of induction, deduction and system analysis were used for deep segmentation of the target market, which involved the separation of its subsegments to determine their specific characteristics: firstly, a theoretical analysis of the proposed classifications of structural elements of the market was performed, secondly, the proposed classification characteristics were systematized and thirdly, an improved original classification of target market subsegments was proposed.

The methods of comparison, survey, target, quota, and stratified selection were used to quantify the size of each share of the target market. Firstly, the assumptions of the product life cycle (PLC) concept and the theory of consumer behavior in terms of their attitude to innovation were combined. Secondly, a questionnaire was developed, which included sections to determine the characteristics of demand depending on the commitment of buyers to the travel agency and its offerings. Thirdly, on the basis of the developed questionnaire a survey was carried out, forming a targeted, quota-stratified sample of 538 clients of 17 travel agencies. Fourthly, the Statistics software package was used to analyze the obtained data.

Methods of grouping, comparison, statistical analysis were used to calculate the diffusion rate of domestic tourist products. The model of the tourist market proposed by Rogers and Bass was improved and adapted, in which the necessary coefficients were calculated based on official statistics and empirical data from travel agencies.

The research covered the tourist market in the region of Vinnytsia, Ukraine, in two periods: 1) the years 2014–2016; 2) the period of November 2019–June 2020

Practical aspects of product life cycle theory and consumer behavior

The concept of product life cycle begins with the observation that freshly developed (i.e. first offered this season) internal tourist products (TPs) are new for both the tourist agency (TA) and the tourism market. It follows that during the first few seasons after launching newly developed TPs, the peculiarities of their perception, and hence the speed and volume of sales will be influenced by the circumstances specific to new products. That is to say, at the „Introduction” stage there will be no competitors at all (if the TP is fundamentally new) or only very few of them. Sales volumes will grow slowly due to the inertia of consumers, and strong communication support is needed to accelerate them. Only „Super Leaders” will buy TPs — opinion leaders, a few of which are always present in the market (Husain, Ghufran & Chaubey, 2016; Wozniak et al., 2018). The cash flow does not yet support any development costs, and profits are absent or insignificant. Over time, the market gradually begins to perceive the TP and the rate of its sales increases, which is indicative of the transition to the next stage.

The classical description of this stage in which a company brings an innovation to market is based on the analysis of a significant array of statistical data on the results of enterprises (i.e. as a generalization of past experience). At least three conclusions follow from this, which are very important for solving the following task of our study: predicting the duration and effectiveness of the stages of the PLC. First, the company will be interested in reducing the first stage and making the fastest possible transition to the second („Growth”), because the stage of introducing a TP (like the prior stage of its development) requires investment, whereas returns are possible only in the next stages. Secondly, given indicators reflecting the structural characteristics of the target market, as well as the attitude of consumers to innovative TPs, it is possible for „anchor” agencies to determine their expected sales volumes. Thirdly, the level of consumer commitment to the TA (and therefore to its TPs) can be measured and, if necessary, adjusted using the marketing tools described above, regulating both the structure of the target market and its activity in purchasing of TP.

However, such forecasting on the basis of existing tendencies was found to be inexpedient, as these tendencies led to negative dynamics on practically all indicators reported by TAs of the Vinnytsia region. On the contrary, our goal is to change these trends to positive ones through the implementation of a proposed cooperative marketing system (Shulgina, 2005) program for TAs, following a systematic approach. The following sequence of steps was envisioned: determining of the structure and volume of Target Market (TM) and Serviced Market (SM); measuring the rate of diffusion of new TPs on the market; evaluation of alternative TPs and selection of them; calculation of additional revenues from the introduction of TPs.

Constituent elements of the target market according to the level of consumer commitment to the given travel agency and its offerings

Given that various researchers have different views on the structure and characteristics of the constituent subsegments of the target market as a common concept, in this section we present and justify the classification used herein.

Target Market (TM) — all the consumers who are targeted by the marketing complex.

Loyalists Market (LoyM) — consumers who have used the services of the given TA many times, fully trust the TP sales manager in terms of reliability, comfort, clear transport and other services.

Sympathizers Market (SympM) — consumers who have a positive attitude to both the TA and its TP; they trust the given TA and, avoiding taking risks, they do not look for alternatives, but rather seek to buy TPs from managers tested by previous experience; however, for various reasons (often due to financial constraints) they are not yet regular customers of this TA.

Qualified Market (QualM) — made up of the loyalists market and the sympathizers market — i.e. this is the market of non-random positiveminded customers of the TA, who are able to explain their choice to themselves and to the environment. Thus, the formula for calculating the QM is as follows:

QualM = LoyM + SympM. (1)

Finders Market (FindM) — seekers of the best version of TPs, have no emotional attachment to either the TA or its TPs and are at the stage of comparing it with competitors. They make their choices either on the basis of a careful analysis of alternatives (usually choose the desired quality at the lowest price), or simply by coincidence.

Serviced Market (ServM) — this is the sum of qualified markets plus the finders market, which can be calculated by the formula:

ServM = QualM + FindM = LoyM + SympM + FindM. (2)

Possible Market (PosM) — the portion of potential buyers who haven’t yet bought TPs from this TA, but are already informed about its activities, are loyal to it, see the need for a specific TP and are considering buying it in the near future.

Potential Market (PotM) — this is the sum of the serviced and possible markets, which can be represented as the following formula:

PotM= ServM + PosM = LoyM + SympM + FindM + PosM. (3)

Perspective Market (PerspM) — the whole market of potential consumers of TPs, including enterprises, companies, consumers that belong to the serviced and possible markets of other TAs, and which may become buyers of TPs under certain conditions.

Logically linking together the above definitions, we arrive at the following combined formula for determining the target market:

TM = LoyM + SympM + FindM + PosM + PerspM. (4)

A graphical illustration of the structure of the target market by the level of consumer commitment to the enterprise and its products is presented Fig. 1.

Application of target market classification to the analysis of the structure of the respondents’ sample To empirically test the proposed model, we have chosen the market of high school and university students in the Vinnytsia region as the target market for a domestic TP. In the initial phase of the introduction of such a TP, taking into account its current quality, analysis should focus on the most unpretentious and most mobile consumers. Given the difficult sociopolitical situation in Ukraine, this requirement has become even more important. Based on data from Ukraine’s statistical office (GUS, 2020) there are actually 957 general schools in the Vinnytsia region, with an average class size of 15.4 pupils. There are 157,000 pupils in the region, including 74,000 pupils of grades 7–11. Technical education in the region is provided by 36 educational institutions, to 18,000 pupils. There are 50 universities in the region with a total number of students of 43,000. Thus, Vinnytsia alone (excluding neighboring regions) is able to provide a minimum TM = 99,000 people (counting 50% of school pupils and 100% of university students) and SM = 33,000 people. According to the pilot survey, the share of tourist-active youth is 48–55% among students and 30–35% among working people. However, in view of data from Vinnitsia City Council (2019) and unfavorable situation for tourism, we adopted the lower limit for the SM — i.e. 1/3 of the TM. As the basis for determining the structure of the TargM and ServM of the internal TP, we took the results of research by Miliutina (2013b), adjusting them based on our data on the results of the survey (Tab. 1).

Notes:

1 — according to data from Vinnitsia City Council (2019), the TM is at least three times larger than SM, while according to the results of research (Miliutina, 2013b), TM = LoyM + SympM + FindM + PosM + PerspM.

2 — according to data from Vinnitsia City Council (2019), 100% of consumers amounts to 32,976 individuals (i.e. almost 33,000 people), which in our view represents the serviced market (ServM) for TA: ServM = LoyM + SympM + FindM.

Agreeing with the psychographic characteristics of certain segments, we explain that in our case, „Super Leaders” and „Leaders”, who belong to the market of loyal consumers, are largely representatives of initiative groups, as well as involved school staff and leaders of student groups. It is possible that among the „Leader-Followers” and the „Moderate Majority” there may also be active parents of students and teachers, who should not be overlooked during the implementation of the program of education and communication activities. A significant part of the reference communication groups of the newly mentioned segments may also be included among the „Traditionalists”.

Based on the fact that the „anchor” TA at this stage implements the strategy of „focusing”, all their efforts should be focused on the first three segments of the Target Market, namely on the Serviced Market (i.e. the sum of Loyalists Market, Sympathizers Market and Finders Market).

The features of the selected segments, which will depend on the effectiveness of the derivation of TP, need to be taken into account:

• The minimum shares of „Super Leaders” and „Leaders” are assumed due to the high level of risk of purchasing domestic TPs under modern conditions. However, as positive information on the TA and TP spreads, and in tandem with the improvement of the domestic political and economic situation in Ukraine, these shares should increase, as the cost of this type of TP is insignificant.
• The probability of a positive perception of the TP by other segments depends much more on the „Super Leaders” and „Leaders” segments in tourism (compared to other industries). This is due to the characteristics of the TP, the increased risk of its consumption, the speed of impact on the reference groups of social networks.
• The „Loyalists Market” segment is the smallest and the most difficult to cultivate and maintain, so to create a kind of „reserve” to replenish it, this is necessary to constantly work on expanding the „Sympathizers Market” and „Finders Market” groups. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the much higher probability that consumers may transition to the „Loyalist Market” from the „Sympathizers Market” than from the „Finders Market”.
• The volume of the most unstable segment of the „Finders Market” significantly exceeds the size of other segments and largely depends on the psychographic characteristics of its participants. The desire of consumers to „be a TP seeker” is explained, on the one hand, by the significant number of TAs in the market (which gives the impression of choice), and on the other — by the low quality of service (which creates a desire to find the expected „price-quality” ratio).
• The segment of „Traditionalists” is relatively small. However, firstly, it is almost comparable in number with the segment of „Leader-
  Followers” (whose significant influence on the perception of TPs by the market is explained by their name), and secondly, „Traditionalists” significantly outperform „Leader-Followers” in terms of demand and commitment to priorities.

These features are also valid for consumers of inbound TPs, to which we initially considered to include foreign students studying in Ukraine.
A pilot survey, however, showed that foreign nationals, who recently were sympathetic to Ukrainian TPs, consider visiting our country quite risky now and are even canceling previously scheduled visits. At the same time, those students who are currently studying at Ukrainian universities are more positive about the possibility of traveling within Ukraine. However, compared to local students, their share has been virtually halved, so we took the figure of 15% (1/2 of 30%). We feel that this category of consumers may become, firstly, an indicator for measuring the assessment of local TP by inflows, and secondly, a necessary communication bridge to promoting domestic Ukrainian TPs among foreign audiences.

These findings point to the need to develop individualized marketing in the activities of the „anchor” TA, which would take into account the characteristics of the described consumer segments. Of course, it is impossible for this to be done by one individual enterprise, however, in the event a cooperative marketing system is introduced, the TA will gain access to the required database and to specialists of with appropriate qualifications.

The measurement of the diffusion rate of the new TP to the market. The next step towards solving this problem is to measure the rate of diffusion of the new TP to the market. Here, an improved and adapted model of the tourist market (E. Rogers and F. Bass) was used to calculate the diffusion rates of domestic and inbound TP (Bass, 2014; Miliutina, 2013):

where, n(t) — quantity of consumers who accepted an innovation during the period (t);
M — market potential (the number of people who will use the new product);
N(t) — total number of followers who accepted the innovation at a certain point in time (persons); p — innovation ratio;
k — simulation ratio;
r — replication ratio.

According to Miliutina (2013b), the innovation ratio (p) characterizes the first wave of diffusion of innovative TP into the market, i.e. its perception by „Super Leaders” (the first and partly the second sales season). The simulation ratio (k) indicates the share of TP consumers who first imitate the „Super Leaders” by copying of their behavior (the second and partly third, and later, respectively, the third and partly fourth sales seasons). Despite the crucial importance of these seasons, the total share of consumers involved is still quite small, and the TP remains new for the main part of the market. In other words, as the main portion of the market („Leader-Followers”, „Moderate Majority” and „Traditionalists”) will become involved only after the successful completion of the first three-four seasons, we also used the replication ratio (r) in the forecasting, making it possible to determine the share of these three groups of innovative TP consumers (Tab. 2). Without their involvement in the process of TP diffusion, and hence to the spread of positive information about it, it is impossible to turn the newly introduced TP into a popular (fashionable, „trendy”) one.

As Table 2 shows, each of the selected segments differs not only in volume, but also in the pace and unanimity of both involvement and rejection of the perceived and already consumed TP. „Super Leaders,” „Loyalists” and „Sympathetic” customers will immediately and fully respond to the TP on offer; however, their interest will last only for one season. That means, none of them will remain for the next season. So, if the „anchor” TA offers them another novelty next season, their „devotion” and „sympathy” for the TA will be in confidence in its innovation, and hence in their repurchase from this TA. However, given the psychographic characteristics (for example, the constant search for something unfamiliar), they will not be able to repurchase the same TP.

Super Leader finders will come 100% in the second season together with Loyalist leaders. However, if among the Leaders there are some who want (about 50%) to buy the same TP again, the Super Leader finders will need something new for repurchasing.

Following of their more determined predecessors, approximately 80% of sympathetic Leaders, 60% of finder Leaders and 50% of loyal LeaderFollowers will buy in the third season. The difference between these groups is the greater mobility of the Leaders, who will more synchronously make purchasing decisions and stay for no more than two seasons. At the same time, the followers of the leaders will be involved in smaller groups and, provided that the quality of TP meets their expectations, they may remain even for as long as four seasons.

Starting with the fourth season, there will be an increasing diversity of TP consumer segments. At the same time, five subsegments will be interested in the product: 60% of sympathetic Leaders, 70% of finder Leaders, as well as all three subgroups of Leader-Followers — 100% loyal (half of which are those who have already consumed the TP in the third season and repurchase in full), 30% of sympathizers and 20% of finders.

By the fifth season, the number of subsegments will increase to nine. Leaders (of whom 10% will be sympathizers and 20% of finders) will be replaced by all three subgroups of Leader-Followers (of which at this stage will be dominated by loyalists — 85%, sympathizers will be sufficiently represented — 60%, and finders — 40%). In addition, small shares of all three subsegments of the moderate majority and even 10% of traditionalists will dare to buy TP.

During the sixth season, nine subsegments will also buy the TP: three subgroups of Leader-Followers, moderates and traditionalists. That is, instead of Leaders (who will no longer be interested in this TP) there will be sympathizers and finders of the Traditionalists segment. The last point will indicate that TP is no longer perceived by the market as an innovation.

The seventh and eighth seasons show an increasing involvement of the Moderate Majority and Traditionalists Segments, with a gradual decrease in the share of all subsegments of Leader-Followers.

The proposed interpretation of the dynamics of the breakdown of segment participation in the diffusion of domestic and inbound TP into the market illustrates in detail the sequence and content of this process, which allows us to make certain important conclusions.

Firstly, the number of participants in each subsegment is a value equal to the measure used through the system used by the TA. According to our research, in modern conditions, the cooperative marketing system (Shulgina, 2005), which involves not only the development of relationships with the consumer, but also close cooperation with him or her, is the most effective. Cooperation in the „TA — consumer” system should involve encouraging the consumer to participate in the development of an individualized TP, developed „just for him”. This can only happen on the basis of the transformation of formal relations between the TE employee and the client into friendly (informal) ones. It is especially important to warn against understanding informal communication with the client as being the same as familiar communication. This is a question of such close study of the consumer’s needs and such a sincere desire to meet them, so that he or she gains a high level of trust in the TA and a desire to do business with it in the future.

Secondly, a detailed description of the sequence and depth of diffusion of a TP from a new perspective illustrates the need for TA employees to understand the impact of the product characteristics on consumer behavior. Recall that according to the model developed in the 1980s by Noriaki Kano, any product can be represented as a set of characteristics: mandatory (must-be), quantitative, unexpected, problematic and indifferent. The development of this theory is traced out in Motrynchuk (2014), where it is demonstrated how the unexpected characteristics of a TP (new to the consumer) in the next season become quantitative for him, and these, respectively, become mandatory. It follows that even Traditionalists will eventually expect a modification of the TP and a gradual improvement in its quality. More mobile segments will need more radical changes or new TPs. In other words, even in the implementation of a focus strategy for the TA, it should not focus on the proposals of only a single TP.

Thirdly, the waves show not only the involvement, but also the volume and structure of consumer losses by the company, which should be considered as lost profits for the TA. The data in Fig. 2 illustrates the dynamics, volume and structure of consumer segments by sales seasons.

Fig 2. illustration provides important information for adjusting the strategy and indicates the following.

1) Even with individualized marketing, the sale of a single TP (i.e., if there is insufficient choice for the consumer) leads to consumer losses (Tab. 3).

It is clear that the consumer always has the right to choose, and the TA cannot work without losses, however, these are losses that can and
should be reduced.
2) If the derived TP is not modified at least in the fourth season, then there will be a noticeable decrease in sales growth in the seventh
season, and its decline will begin in the eighth one.

Fourthly, given the different composition of consumers during the described seasons, each season will require not only a modified TP, but also, due to this, different composition differences in all elements of the TP. Special attention will need to be paid to the complex of marketing communications, which is being improved most intensively, offering new tools and approaches almost every year. As for evidence in support of the notation that the share of consumers is dependent upon on the availability of quantitative choice in the range of TP, we found that the signs of the trend (to reduce of sales growth in the seventh season and the beginning of the decline in the eighth) begin to decrease with a choice of two TPs. Also, if the number of differentiated positions is increased to seven TPs — they ultimately disappear.

Conclusions

Based on the analysis of theories of product life cycle and consumer behavior, we formulated important starting points for forecasting of the introduction of an innovative tourist product: the company will be interested in reducing the stage of „Product Introduction”, i.e. in making a faster transition to the stage of „Growth”; given such indicators on structural elements of the target market as the degree of commitment to tourist agencies and tourist products, as well as the attitude of consumers to innovative tourist products, the expected sales of the „anchor” tourist agency can be determined; the level of consumer commitment to the tourist agency (and hence to their tourist products) can be measured and, if necessary, adjusted with the help of marketing tools, regulating both the structure of the target market and its activity in tourist product purchasing.

From the point of view of the need to implement a focusing strategy, the characteristics of consumers in the „Serviced Market” subsegments have been clarified: the probability of a positive perception of tourist products by other segments depends much more on the segments of „Super Leaders” and „Leaders” in tourism (as compared to other industries). The segment of the „Loyalists Market” is the smallest, and it is the most difficult to cultivate and maintain. So, to create a kind of „reserve” to replenish it, it is necessary to constantly work on expanding the groups of the „Sympathizers Market” and „Finders Market”. The volume of the most unstable segment, the „Finders Market”, significantly exceeds the size of other segments and largely depends on the psychographic characteristics of its participants. The segment of „Traditionalists” is relatively small. However, it is almost comparable in number to the segment of „LeaderFollowers” (which significantly affect the perception of tourist products by the market) and „Traditionalists” significantly outperform the „LeaderFollowers” in terms of demand and commitment to established priorities.

Based on the models that describe the diffusion of new tourist products, as well as our established boundaries of the target and serviced markets, we determined the composition and structure of participation of each subsegment in the sequence of diffusion of domestic and inbound tourist product to the market. On this basis, it was demonstrated that the number of participants in each subsegment is a value that largely depends on the system of attraction used by the tourist agency (yet another argument in favor of developing a cooperative marketing system). In terms of new aspects of the work herein, we illustrated the need for employees of tourist agency to understand the impact of product characteristics on consumers behavior, as well as the rules of transition of types of characteristics from lower to higher level. Also, the number of tourist agency consumers lost due to a lack of choice of tourist products was calculated.

Overall, the original forecasting methodology presented herein, based on the concept of product life cycle and the theory of consumer behavior, has been demonstrated as useful for calculating the sales volumes of an innovative product in the tourist industry as well as the rate of its penetration into the market. Moreover, this methodology has been empirically confirmed based on data from a questionnaire survey on the domestic tourism market among high school and university students in the region of Vinnytsiya, Ukraine. In general, such a refined methodology, employing deep market segmentation take into account the behavioral peculiarities of individual subsegments and the flows between them, is all the more necessary in many markets and industries, especially in today’s shifting economic circumstances.

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